Tackling the challenge of maintaining elite status while our in-district student population shrinks to historic lows.
"We find ourselves at a critical juncture in preserving Westlake's long history of excellence, as Eanes ISD has now passed its peak in-district student population at the same time we need to invest significant resources (via bonds) to improve our facilities. If we are to remain the top school district in the country, we need a board that has experience navigating difficult economic realities, in this case an in-district student population that could drop from 7,000 to 5,000 over the next 10 years. We need a board that is prepared to face adverse conditions and can develop a long-term plan that will both preserve the elite status of the district and be thoughtful of the Eanes taxpayer that will be asked to support the hundreds of millions of bonds (or more) necessary to make this a reality. The two main questions facing the voters today are, 1) do we hope to fill the gap with 2,000-3,000 transfer students to meet our current spending needs? Or, 2) do we have to consider a plan that reshapes the district for the reality of a shrinking student population?” – Aaron Silva
As an accomplished founder and CEO for nearly 30 years, I know that great companies are a work in progress, never easy, never static. From time-to-time, leaders must step back from the enterprise and examine their surroundings and re-validate previous assumptions before making any big strategic moves with an eye toward 10 years into the future, rather than 10 months. The greatest leaders have good intuition on when it is prudent to make strategy shifts or make significant investments. But the best also must rely on data to honestly assess the risks of making big changes or substantial investments that will prove successful. I launched my 2024 trustee campaign sharing my own sense, which tells me that Eanes is potentially on the verge of a “success failure”. Through diligent analysis of publicly available data independently reviewed by a 3rd party school finance consultant, I have uncovered a prescient challenge that I don’t believe the current board or the other candidates in the race for place 5 are focused: the need to strategically leverage transfer students and effectively manage bond debt in the coming decade, as we face significant declines in in-district students that could be -2,000 to -3,000 lower in 10 years.
The challenge we all face is how do we effectively finance the rebuilding of our school district to accommodate 7,500 - 8,000 students, that could comprise 30% of students from outside our taxable district? Unfortunately, our current leaders seem focused more on championing our school's achievements (rightfully so, we are an amazing district!) or bemoaning the difficulties of the economic realities that come with the Texas recapture system, rather than embracing this foresight. Transfer students are a key lever that EISD has utilized in the past and one that we should be fortunate to still have in the future if we stay a top “destination district”. In fact, transfer students save EISD about $7,500 in M&O expense for every student added to our population. But reliance on such a large increase in transfer students to achieve the long-term goal of 7500-8000 students in Eanes is risky, as we don’t control transfer student demand. This is even more important to consider as utilizing transfer students to plug short-term budget deficits is diametrically different than basing a long-term investment strategy, backed by massive bond debt, on the availability of significantly higher transfer students in the future.
Below, I present the details on the data driving my above concerns. Data that I know our current administration, as well as the other candidates for place 5, are not properly focused on and not prepared to handle without help. Help that I know I can provide as your trustee.
The information and insights presented in this paper are derived solely from publicly available sources, providing a level of transparency and analysis that our community has not yet enjoyed from current board members or administrators.
Aaron M. Silva
Candidate for Place 5
Eanes Board of Trustees
Yes, Our Eanes Student Population is Shrinking.
Look around. Eanes parents, grandparents and taxpayers aren’t leaving the community after their children process through Westlake and move onto college. The median house price is $2,000,000, preventing young families from moving in and enrolling little ones into our elementary schools. Public districts to our south, west and north are building schools and peeling our teachers away, accelerating our brain drain at an alarming rate (20% annually; one in five teachers left Eanes over the last two years). As local public and private schools get stronger and more competitive, the once predictable stream of transfer students seems less reliable. Our “in-district” student population has likely peaked according to demographers citing publicly available data they presented to our current Board of Trustees and administration February 6th. According to my forecast, the in-district student population is expected to drop from 7,071 students (2024) to 5,414 in 10 years. Simple back-of-the-envelope math illustrates a 300-ish annual student gap between those who graduate in the spring and those who enter Kindergarten the next fall. Straight-line the -300 deficit out 10 years, factor in known attrition and other market factors (I’ve got the data, don’t worry), and EISD will conservatively have at least 2,171 transfers in 2034. In light of a massive bond plan to refurbish our schools for a student capacity of 8,000 - Do we believe voters will pass future bonds knowing that potentially 30% of students’ families won’t be carrying the debt with Westlake taxpayers? This could be perceived by taxpayers as a compounding of vast sums of property tax dollars already bleeding out of our community due to recapture.
Massive Bond Debt and Continued Budget Deficits?
Our Long-Range Facility Planning Committee is planning hundreds of millions (perhaps $1 billion+) in bond debt to refurbish and rebuild all of our campuses to accommodate a 7,600 - 8,000+ student population. It’s true, we do need to refurbish our facilities – the last time we cut a ribbon on a school was 25 years ago. It is also factually true that, due to the state school funding formula, we need and want transfer students in order to defray operational expenses. Every transfer student reduces our recapture payment to Texas by about $7,500. The 661 transfer students we have today equate to about $5.0MM – not exactly chump change. But when it comes to bond debt, the calculus is different. School bonds are intended for major capital projects that either increase capacity and/or improve the facilities to bolster education quality. We are faced with only the latter, as our district student population is going to shrink.
The blue bars in the chart below illustrate the number of new students we must add to our population in each following year – transfers or move-ins – to maintain efficiency. When you hear Eanes use the term “efficiency” what they really mean to say is – “We need X number of students to match our current expenditures.” Eanes, and most of the currently seated trustees, has been warned for nearly 10 years of declining population and commensurate public funding but have never responded proactively. Herein lies an unavoidable truth that we will need to confront from a budget perspective, while also thinking about the long-term financing needs backed by bonds.
Personally, professionally, and as a potential EISD trustee, I believe Eanes should be open arms to students and their families from all over the Austin region but only if we have extra room. However, it is irresponsible not to be thoughtful and clear about the long-term sentiment and impact to taxpayers, as the community has to ultimately back the long term plan with their wallets. Fact is, 61% of our voters don’t have children in the district. And the current plan (direction) appears to be promoting as many transfer students as we can to match our spending appetite. I am not certain if this condition is palatable to the majority of the district, which presents additional risk. This is what CEOs think about when crafting long-term strategic plans and where I can be immediately impactful on the board.
How Best to Use Transfer Students?
The thrust of my concerns come down to the best use, and to what degree, do we leverage transfer students in our long-term planning. Do we use transfer students in a high-growth mode or in the alternative plan to more closely shape our future district – and bond debt – to rebuild a school district based on the realities of a population that has obviously peaked.
In the projection above we illustrate what the mix of transfer vs. in-district students would look like in a slow growth, relatively flat transfer model that allows the in-district student population to naturally decay to about 4,537 for a total student population closer to 5,000. Eanes may be smaller…but we will still win State Championships.
Deja vu – 2nd High School
A replay of history from just about 20 years ago reminds our community that there was once a big push – and a community vote – to add a second high school to Eanes. Dissenters to the plan warned of the fact that Westlake and the Eanes district was land-locked and could not sustain the population necessary for a second high school. Common sense and foresight prevailed, and the voters turned down the idea. Such a mistake would have left our community with a giant white albatross of a problem. We should be careful again today!
Risks and Known Unknowns
There appears to be only ONE plan (A) foisted onto our long-term facilities and bond committees as a baseline for their planning activities. To limit discussions to only this goal would be irresponsible and short-sighted in light of the information I have presented herein. I am the only leader in the community - not even yet elected to a board seat - to present a second plan (B) worth considering before we design a massive bond package to refurbish and upgrade our amazing district. Perhaps there is a middle ground option that has not yet been contemplated reconsidering the risks and known unknowns.
Below are additional risks that I have identified that need careful consideration yet are not being discussed. I highlight this to show my forward-thinking scenario-based approach to problem solving that will be an asset on the board.
With my addition to the board of trustees, I will be a huge asset to the community to ensure that, whatever plan we embark upon, we can be successful. But I also believe the community needs to know exactly what our current leadership is potentially signing Eanes taxpayers up for with clear foresight. This is the kind of “diversity of thought” that is desperately needed on the board, and which I am uniquely qualified to bring.
The details and models that support this report are available for examination and explanation upon request sent to info@Silva4Eanes.com.